Tom's 2 pm edit of growth lecture

Author: thomassargent30

lectures/long_run_growth.md

@@ -19,7 +19,26 @@ kernelspec:
 
 Adam Tooze's account of the geopolitical precedents and antecedents of World War I  includes a comparison of how  National Gross National Products of European Great Powers had evolved during the 70 years preceding 1914 (see chapter 1 of {cite}`Tooze_2014`).
 
+We report a version of Tooze's graph later in this lecture.
 
+Looking at his graph and how it set the geopolitical stage for "the American (20th) century" naturally 
+tempts one to want a counterpart to his graph for 2014 or later.
+
+As we'll see, reasoning just by analogy, this graph perhaps set the stage for an "XXX (21st) century", where you get to fill in a country for our XXX.
+
+As we gather data to construct those two graphs, we'll also study growth experiences for a number of countries for time horizons extending as far back as possible.
+
+These graphs will portray how the "Industrial Revolution" began in Britain in the late 18th century, then migrated to one country after another.  
+
+In a nutshell, this  lecture records  growth trajectories of various  countries over long time periods. 
+
+While some countries have experienced long term rapid growth across that has lasted a hundred years, others have not. 
+
+
+Since populations differ across country and within a country vary over time, it will
+be interesting to describe both total GNP and GNP per capita as it evolves within a country.
+
+First let's import the packages needed to explore what the data says about long run growth.
 
 This lecture  growth trajectories of various  countries over long time periods. 
 
@@ -301,24 +320,26 @@ plt.show()
 
 +++ {"user_expressions": []}
 
-(TODO: Finalize trend)
-We can see some interesting trends:
+The preceding graph of percapita GDP strikingly reveals how the spread of the industrial revolution has over time gradually lifted the living standards of substantial
+groups of people  
 
 - Most of the growth happened in the past 150 years after the industrial revolution.
-- There was a divergence between the West and the East during the process of industrialization (from 1820 to 1940).
-- The gap is rapidly closing in the modern era.
-- The shift in the paradigm in policy is usually intertwined with the technological and political.
+- Percapita GDP's in the  UK and the US, on the one hand, and in China, on the other, diverged  from 1820 to 1940.
+- The gap has closed  rapidly after 1950 and especially after the late 1970s.
+- These outcomes reflect complicated combinations of technological and economic-policy factors that students of economic growth try to understand and quantify
 
 +++ {"user_expressions": []}
 
-Looking at China's GDP per capita levels from 1500 through to the 1970s showed a long period of declining GDP per capital levels from the 1700s to the early 20th century.
+It is fascinating to see  China's GDP per capita levels from 1500 through to the 1970s.
 
-(TODO: Finalize trend)
-Trends to note:
-- Period of economic downturn after the Closed-door Policy by the Qing government
-- Missing out on the industrial revolution
-- Self-Strengthening Movement may help the growth but in a very mild way
-- Modern Chinese economic policies and the growth after the founding of the PRC (political stability) and after the Reform and Opening-up
+Notice the long period of declining GDP per capital levels from the 1700s until the early 20th century.
+
+Thus, the graph indicates 
+
+- A long  economic downturn and stagnation after the Closed-door Policy by the Qing government
+- China's very different experience than the UK's after the onset of   the industrial revolution in the UK
+- How the Self-Strengthening Movement seemed mostly to help China to grow
+- How stunning have been the growth achievements of Modern Chinese economic policies by the PRC that culminated with its late 1970s Reform and Opening-up
 
 ```{code-cell} ipython3
 ---
@@ -370,12 +391,12 @@ plt.show()
 
 +++ {"user_expressions": []}
 
-(TODO: Finalize trend)
-Trends to note:
-- The impact of trade policy (Navigation Act)
-- The productivity change created by the industrial revolution
-- US surpasses UK -- any specific event?
-- Wars and business cycles (link to business cycles lecture)
+In the following graph, please watch for 
+- impact of trade policy (Navigation Act)
+- productivity changes brought by the industrial revolution
+- how the US gradually approaches and then  surpasses the UK, setting the stage for the ``American Century''
+- the  often unanticipated consequenes of Wars 
+- interruptions and scars left by business cycle recessions and depressions
 
 ```{code-cell} ipython3
 ---
@@ -430,9 +451,9 @@ plt.show()
 
 ## The Industrialized World
 
-(TODO: Write description for this section)
+Now we'll construct some graphs of interest to geopolitical historians like Adam Tooze.
 
-Now we can look at total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rather than focusing on GDP per capita (as a proxy for living standards).
+We'll focus on  total Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  (as a proxy for ``national geopolitical-military power'') rather than focusing on GDP per capita (as a proxy for living standards).
 
 ```{code-cell} ipython3
 data = pd.read_excel("datasets/mpd2020.xlsx", sheet_name='Full data')
@@ -529,9 +550,10 @@ ax = draw_interp_plots(gdppc[cntry].loc[start_year:end_year],
 +++ {"user_expressions": []}
 
 ## Regional Analysis
-(TODO: Write descriptions for this section)
 
-The [Maddison Historical Statistics](https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/) dataset also includes regional aggregations
+We often want to study historical experiences of countries outside the club of "World Powers".
+
+Fortunately, the [Maddison Historical Statistics](https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/) dataset also includes regional aggregations
 
 ```{code-cell} ipython3
 data = pd.read_excel("datasets/mpd2020.xlsx", sheet_name='Regional data', header=(0,1,2), index_col=0)