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‎slides/day1-afternoon.qmd‎

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<!--
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## Backfill American edition
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* Again, we can see a similar systematic underestimation problem for COVID-19 mortality rates in CA. <!-- 2023-2024 -->
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* Again, we can see a similar systematic underestimation problem for COVID-19 mortality rates in CA.
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* This plot also illustrates the [**revision process**]{.primary} - how the reported mortality changes & increases across multiple updates until it stabilizes at the final value (black line).
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* Ex. using the number of reported COVID-19 cases in British Columbia between Jan. 2020 and Apr. 15, 2023.
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<!-- This data is the number of reported COVID-19 cases in British Columbia between January 2020 and April 15, 2023. The values are.up-to-date as of August 2023. -->
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This data is the number of reported COVID-19 cases in British Columbia between January 2020 and April 15, 2023. The values are.up-to-date as of August 2023.
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```{r rtestim}
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#| fig-width: 9
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#| fig-height: 3

‎slides/day1-morning.qmd‎

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pull() |> as.numeric()
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```
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* On June 1, this signal is subject to [**revision**]{.primary} <!--over time (ex. consider Dec. 1's `percent_cli` across `version`):-->
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* On June 1, this signal is subject to [**revision**]{.primary} over time (ex. consider Dec. 1's `percent_cli` across `version`):
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```{r revision-ca-ex}
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#| echo: false
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* Auxilliary signals show no such dramatic increase
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* Reports themselves may not be trustworthy without context
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<!--
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* **Left**: On July 16, 4,810 [backlogged cases]{.primary} were reported, reflecting a 2-week delay. This caused a prolonged spike due to the 7-day trailing average applied to the counts.
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* **Right**: CTIS estimates of CLI-in-community showed more stable underlying trends.
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-->
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```{r fig4-Reinhart}
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#| echo: false
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## Goals of Delphi Epidata platform and repository
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1. **Provide many aggregated epi-surveillance time-series ("epi-signals")**
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+ Mirror signals from other sources, especially if revisions are not tracked <!-- E.g. CDC's own NSSP, NWSS -->
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+ Mirror signals from other sources, especially if revisions are not tracked
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+ Be the national historical repository of record & preserve the raw data
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<!-- Hence: include also signals available elsewhere, especially if they don't keep data revisions - E.g. CDC's own NSSP, NWSS -->
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Hence: include also signals available elsewhere, especially if they don't keep data revisions - E.g. CDC's own NSSP, NWSS
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2. **Be the go-to place for epi-signal discovery, including those held elsewhere**
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::: {.callout-important appearance="simple"}
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Make epi-surveillance more nimble, complete, standardized, robust, and real-time
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:::
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-->
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* Avoid queries with too-late minimum too-early maximum issue
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* Could be misleading results
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<!-- * We caution against starting queries with too late a minimum issue or too early maximum issue, as it could lead to incorrect or misleading results. You're safest bet to capture all issues is on the next slide... -->
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* We caution against starting queries with too late a minimum issue or too early maximum issue, as it could lead to incorrect or misleading results. You're safest bet to capture all issues is on the next slide...
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## Obtaining all issues for one state
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<!--
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## Obtaining one issue for all states
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-->
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<!--
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[**Final question:**]{.primary} What do you think happens when we adopt a "do nothing" approach to `geo_values` and `issues` (take both of them out)?
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<small> [**Hint**]{.primary}: remember a couple slides ago, when we removed `as_of`, we got the most recent estimate for PA. </small>
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-->
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<!--
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Defaults are intended to be "what you would expect"
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```{r one-issue-all-states}
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```
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</div>
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## Main takeaways

‎slides/day2-morning.qmd‎

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* mean absolute scaled error (MASE)
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<--
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<!--
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## Error metrics: MSE and MAE
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$$MSE = \frac{1}{N} \sum_{t=1}^N (y_{new, t}- \hat y_{new, t})^2$$
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Assumes an $ARMA(p, q)$ model on the
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$d^{th}$-order differences of $y_t$
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-->
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