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253 lines (204 loc) · 7.97 KB
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import os
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import torch
import torch.nn as nn
import joblib
from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler
import argparse
from models import LSTM_layer
from torch.utils.data import TensorDataset, DataLoader
from module import MSE_loss, MSE_diff_loss, Trend_loss
from module import rmse, mae, mape
from module import Load_dataset
######################### Sliding Window Dataset #########################
def make_sliding_dataset(X_hist: np.ndarray,
y_hist: np.ndarray,
window: int = 1):
T = len(X_hist)
if T < window:
return None, None
X_list, y_list = [], []
# Sliding based on index t where the window ends
for t in range(window - 1, T):
s = t - window + 1
e = t + 1
X_list.append(X_hist[s:e])
y_list.append(y_hist[s:e])
X_arr = np.stack(X_list, axis=0)
y_arr = np.stack(y_list, axis=0)
return X_arr, y_arr
######################### Train / Finetune / Eval #########################
def train(args, model, train_loader, optimizer, epoch):
model.train()
for xb, yb in train_loader:
xb = xb.cuda()
yb = yb.cuda()
optimizer.zero_grad()
pred = model(xb)
mse_loss = MSE_loss(pred, yb)
Loss_F = mse_loss
Loss_F.backward()
optimizer.step()
if args.show_train_loss:
print(
f"[{epoch}/{args.max_epoch}] Loss-sum: {Loss_F.item():.4f} "
f"MSE: {mse_loss.item():.4f}"
)
def train_ft(args, model, train_loader, optimizer, epoch):
model.train()
for xb, yb in train_loader:
xb = xb.cuda()
yb = yb.cuda()
optimizer.zero_grad()
pred = model(xb)
mse_loss = MSE_loss(pred, yb)
Loss_F = mse_loss
Loss_F.backward()
optimizer.step()
if args.show_train_loss:
print(
f"[FT {epoch}/{args.ft_epoch}] Loss-sum: {Loss_F.item():.4f} "
f"MSE: {mse_loss.item():.4f}"
)
def eval_once(args, X_test, model):
model.eval()
with torch.no_grad():
pred = model(X_test.cuda())
pred_np = pred.cpu().numpy().reshape(-1, 1)
return pred_np
############################### MAIN ################################
def main(args):
np.random.seed(42)
torch.manual_seed(42)
torch.cuda.manual_seed(42)
torch.backends.cudnn.deterministic = True
################ Load & Preprocess Data ################
data_raw = Load_dataset(
foundation_path="/home/bxai4/financial/FingFinge/Data"
)
# Forward fill & Inner join
data = data_raw.ffill().dropna().reset_index(drop=True)
data["target_shift"] = data["target"].shift(-1)
# Remove target shift Nan(Last Raw)
data = data.dropna(subset=["target_shift"]).reset_index(drop=True)
raw = data.copy()
# Control starting date
starting_point = raw[raw["orig_date"] == "2022-12-29"].index[0]
feature_cols = [
"VIX_Close",
"KOSPI200_LogRet",
"USD_KRW_LogRet",
"DGS10",
"target",
] #
target_col = "target_shift"
use_scaler = args.use_scaler # X scaling true/false
window = args.window_len # Sliding window length
model = None
optimizer = None
scheduler = None
first_train_done = False
# Store predict/target
all_preds = []
all_trues = []
forecast_list = []
true_list = []
################ Walk-forward Loop ################
for i in range(starting_point, len(raw) - 1):
# 1) Past Interval (Include current i)
past_df = raw.loc[:i].copy()
X_hist = past_df[feature_cols].values # (T, C)
y_hist = past_df[target_col].values.reshape(-1, 1) # (T, 1)
# Creating a Sliding Window Dataset
X_win_np, y_win_np = make_sliding_dataset(X_hist, y_hist, window=window)
if X_win_np is None:
# Skip interval that not satisfy window length
continue
# 2) Scaling(just x)
if use_scaler:
scaler_x = MinMaxScaler(feature_range=(-1, 1))
# Fit about all window data
T_all = X_win_np.reshape(-1, X_win_np.shape[-1])
scaler_x.fit(T_all)
X_win_np = scaler_x.transform(T_all).reshape(X_win_np.shape)
else:
scaler_x = None
# 3) Transform tensor
X_train = torch.tensor(X_win_np, dtype=torch.float32) # (N, window, C)
y_train = torch.tensor(y_win_np, dtype=torch.float32) # (N, window, 1)
train_dataset = TensorDataset(X_train, y_train)
train_loader = DataLoader(
train_dataset, batch_size=args.batch_size, shuffle=True
)
# 4) Model initialize
if model is None:
if args.model_name == "LSTM":
model = LSTM_layer(
input_dim=X_train.shape[2],
d_model=args.d_model,
output_dim=y_train.shape[2],
)
model = nn.DataParallel(model, device_ids=args.gpuNum).cuda()
optimizer = torch.optim.AdamW(
model.parameters(),
lr=args.LR,
betas=(0.8, 0.99),
weight_decay=0.01,
)
scheduler = torch.optim.lr_scheduler.ExponentialLR(
optimizer, gamma=0.999, last_epoch=-1
)
# 5) train / finetune
if not first_train_done:
print(f"-> First training at i={i}: epoch={args.max_epoch}, LR={args.LR}")
for epoch in range(args.max_epoch):
train(args, model, train_loader, optimizer, epoch)
scheduler.step()
first_train_done = True
else:
optimizer.param_groups[0]["lr"] = args.ft_LR
print(f"-> Fine-tuning at i={i}: epoch={args.ft_epoch}, LR={args.ft_LR}")
for epoch in range(args.ft_epoch):
train_ft(args, model, train_loader, optimizer, epoch)
# 6) For predict X_test
# --- one-step ahead 예측 ---
test_df = raw.loc[:i+1].copy() # i까지의 feature만 사용
X_test_seq = test_df[feature_cols].values
if use_scaler:
X_test_seq = scaler_x.transform(X_test_seq)
X_test = torch.tensor(X_test_seq, dtype=torch.float32).unsqueeze(0)
forecast_array = eval_once(args, X_test, model) # (T_test, 1)
y_hat = float(forecast_array[-1, 0]) # scalar
y_true = float(raw.loc[i+1, target_col]) # target_shift[i] = target[i+1]
forecast_list.append(y_hat)
true_list.append(y_true)
forecast_rmse = rmse(np.array(true_list), np.array(forecast_list))
# Append Date
if i + 2 > len(raw) - 1:
forecast_date = str(raw.iloc[-1]["orig_date"])
else:
forecast_date = str(raw.loc[i + 2, "orig_date"])
print(
f"Model-Name: {args.model_name}\t "
f"forecast_date: {forecast_date}\t "
f"RMSE: {forecast_rmse:.4f}"
)
all_preds = pd.DataFrame(np.array(forecast_list))
# 8) Store last predicted interval
joblib.dump(all_preds, f"{args.model_name}_result_no_target.pkl")
if __name__ == "__main__":
parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Hyperparams")
parser.add_argument("--model_name", type=str, default="LSTM", help="LSTM GRU TimesGPT")
parser.add_argument("--gpuNum", type=list, default=[0])
parser.add_argument("--batch_size", type=int, default=32)
parser.add_argument("--LR", type=float, default=1e-4)
parser.add_argument("--max_epoch", type=int, default=100)
parser.add_argument("--show_train_loss", type=bool, default=False)
parser.add_argument("--use_scaler", type=bool, default=True)
parser.add_argument("--ft_epoch", type=int, default=50)
parser.add_argument("--ft_LR", type=float, default=1e-5)
parser.add_argument("--window_len", type=int, default=300)
parser.add_argument("--d_model", type=int, default=64)
args = parser.parse_args()
main(args)