Thesis:
Milestone is our swing for a home run – an FDA approval of etripamil (Brand: “CARDAMYST”) could be transformative. The FDA’s acceptance of the resubmission and assignment of a Dec 13 PDUFA gives us a clear catalyst
hcplive.com.
We believe the issues in the prior CRL (impurities and inspection) have been adequately addressed
investing.com.
If approved, MIST’s self-administered PSVT therapy would fill an unmet need (potentially first-line for episodes of rapid heart rate), which could make the stock dramatically rerate. Analysts see upside as well – e.g., Wells Fargo’s initiation at Overweight with a $4.00 target underscores the multi-bagger potential
investing.com.
This week:
MIST stock held around the high-$1.80s on no news. We added a tiny bit to our position with leftover cash, reflecting our conviction.
Risks:
Binary FDA risk is huge; a rejection could send shares < $1 (hence our stop at $1.70 to limit damage). But the reward-risk still skews positive in our view, especially as the date nears.
We remain bullish and patient.
Thesis:
Aytu is on the cusp of launching EXXUA™, a novel antidepressant. This is the first new mechanism antidepressant approved in years and crucially lacks the sexual side effects of SSRIs
stocktitan.net.
The depression market is enormous (~$22B U.S. market), and even a tiny penetration by EXXUA could multiply Aytu’s current ~$22M market cap
finance.yahoo.com.
We see AYTU as deep value with a catalyst: it has an existing commercial infrastructure (from its ADHD products) and backing from healthcare-focused funds
stocktitan.net.
This week:
AYTU’s share price is steady ~ $2.30, with the company actively presenting to investors (in NYC and Toronto conferences) to build awareness
stocktitan.net.
No negative news on the launch timeline was noted – they appear on track to have EXXUA in the market by year-end. We maintained our position.
Risks:
Execution is key – if the launch disappoints or gets delayed, the stock could fall (stop at $1.80).
Dilution is less a concern near-term post the June financing (done at $1.50/share, now behind us
stocktitan.net).
We like the risk/reward here: limited downside (cash and other products give some valuation floor) versus major upside if EXXUA gains traction.
We’ll continue to monitor launch progress but remain optimistic that by the experiment’s end, AYTU will be higher.
Thesis:
Microbot is our play on a cutting-edge medical device about to hit the market. Their LIBERTY robotic system – the first-ever single-use endovascular robot – received FDA clearance in August
stocktitan.net.
This device allows remote catheter procedures with reduced radiation and improved precision
stocktitan.net.
MBOT plans to commercialize LIBERTY in Q4 2025, targeting an initial market of 2.5 million procedures/year
stocktitan.net.
We expect a “hype cycle” as the launch gets underway: even the story of the first robotic tool of its kind could attract investors, not to mention actual sales or partnerships validating the technology.
This week:
MBOT’s stock drifted lower to ~$2.42
stocktitan.net, likely normal post-news cooling and warrant-related selling (the company raised ~$29M via warrant exercises around $1.50–$2.13
stocktitan.net), ultimately good for fundamentals.
The thesis remains unchanged – the cash infusion funds the launch, and management is promoting the device aggressively. We’re holding through the commercialization milestone.
Risks:
As a pre-revenue company, if the launch falters or gets delayed, the stock could slide (stop at $2.30).
Being a small medtech, MBOT is sensitive to sentiment and volatility.
However, upside on any positive development (first hospital adoption, etc.) is significant.
We’ve sized this smaller than MIST/AYTU due to volatility but still meaningful. Ready to cut if needed, but for now see a favorable setup going into Q4.
After deploying nearly all cash, we’re fully invested.
We used the last ~$2 to incrementally add to MIST – reflecting confidence in that position’s risk-reward.
It’s a minor move but symbolic that we prefer capital working in our best ideas rather than idle.
No other changes were made, as we believe our current trio is the right mix for our bold year-end push.
Our portfolio is positioned for a make-or-break final quarter.
We have three independent shots at significant gains:
- FDA approval (MIST)
- Product launch (AYTU)
- Tech commercialization (MBOT)
Each carries high risk, but collectively they offer multiple chances to catch a big break.
We have tight risk controls (stops) to guard against disaster if any single bet fails.
The coming weeks will be critical – we will stay alert and ready to adjust, but we’re entering this phase with a clear plan and strong conviction in each holding’s thesis.