Create 2025-predictions.md

Author: ewinnington

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+# On the Horizon - 2025 - My predictions
+
+In a way, predicting 2025 is somewhat harder and easier than 2024, a lot of what I see are the seeds of 2024 coming to bloom. But for what we will have by the end of the year is really unclear to me - but we will see some impact in research for sure - AI assisted research in fields will explode this year. 
+
+## Predictions: 
+
+###  AI Video / AI Audio
+
+- **Cinema level visuals made on generative environments** - not only creating a video, but creating the entire space so that the camera can be then moved in post production - will become available to the high end customers. This approach is a complement to the diffusion models, which only generate a few frames of temporal consistency - using this method will allow much better time coherence and consistency / object permanence. Nvidia Cosmos is closest to this and I think the next version of it will satisfy this point. I expect many video models to actually start using this method with temporal control nets to avoid the inconsistency of object permanence. 
+- AI Chatbots will be allowed to sing, make music and emote more. While some LLMs are already capable of such things, they are generally removed in post-training but I think these restrictions will be removed this year.  Suno's lead on AI Music gets folded into a leading model, meaning you'll be able to ask a ChatGPT competitor "make me a song, with lyrics and background track". 
+- Visual understanding models will be commonly deployed - Meaning point your camera and get full descriptions of what you see, It's nearly there anyway. 
+
+### AI Agents 
+
+By agent, I define as a **application in which an AI model takes actions against external systems on behalf of a user in furtherance of a user's give task and goal**.
+
+- A desktop based agent will become available to use on the computer. Interacting with your browser and mail client automatically. (Probably Claude's Anthropic will be there soonest) - doesn't mean the LLM has to run on the desktop. 
+- AI Agents included in softwares (Teams, Github, ...) will start to become available in preview at least before the end of the year. 
+- Programming Agents will start to be useful (see AI Devin in 2024 being still completely unusable) - but in 2025 AI coders will be the focus and ship mid year. 
+
+### AI in Mathematics 
+
+- While the first theorem proof by an LLM has already been published, I expect 2025 to have a slew of progress on fundamental proofs rewritten by LLMs or LRMs, particularly towards automated proofing systems (Coq, ...) and several proofs generated by LLMs that humans did not independently derive. 
+
+### AI in Medicine
+- One company will announce an AI diagnostics companion for health - that is certified as a support tool for doctors. 
+
+### AI in War 
+A-  semi-autonomous multi-agent AI will be used to control a tactical engagement in Ukraine. This has nearly happened due to the engagement of the first robot brigade ([dec 2024 : Ukraine’s All-Robot Assault Force Just Won Its First Battle](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/12/21/ukraines-first-all-robot-assault-force-just-won-its-first-battle/) ) - but without AI - using tele-operation. I think AI will be used at more levels than just terminal guidance of the FPV drones. 
+
+### AGI 
+
+- One company claims their model has attained **AGI** - defined as a model that is as good as a reasoning human - __*in office work related tasks*__. There is a lot of disagreement if this constitutes AGI or not.
+
+### Robotics: 
+
+- Humanoid robots become available in limited quantities to the general public, with at least 1 company shipping a home robot with AI onboard to do simple tasks (Unitree from 2024 does not count since the robots are **only** remote controlled). These first robots will be sometimes teleoperated for specific tasks. Pricing will be lower than 50k$ per robot. 
+- One company announces wide scale drone deliveries in US cities: While drone delivery companies already exist ([13 Drone Delivery Companies to Know | Built In](https://builtin.com/articles/drone-delivery-companies)), one of them is going to break out as an early leader this year. 
+
+### Space: 
+
+- SpaceX demonstrates first ship to ship refueling.
+- Blue Origin gets to orbit with New Glenn and proves the landing system, but is not able to send a reused first stage to orbit yet. 
+- The first part of a new space station gets deployed, probably commercial. 
+
+### Environment: 
+- 2025 beats 2024 as hottest year.