Refocus intraday alerts on STRONG BUY signals only

Alerts now trigger only for:
- Upgrades to STRONG BUY from any other level
- Downgrades from STRONG BUY to any other level
- Confidence changes ≥10 while staying at STRONG BUY

Default threshold changed from 5 to 10. Removes noise from BUY-level
confidence changes that aren't actionable.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Author: furic

CLAUDE.md

@@ -41,7 +41,7 @@ src/index.ts (entry point — parses --weekly/--intraday flags, wires modules)
   → src/analyze.ts         # Allocation gaps, P/E signals, ETF overlap discounts, portfolio beta, dividend estimate
   → src/aiAnalysis.ts      # Gemini AI: buy recs + confidence + limit prices + value ratings + crypto bottom signals
   → src/state.ts           # Save/load morning baseline for intraday comparison
-  → src/intradayCompare.ts # Compare current AI recs vs morning baseline, detect strengthening
+  → src/intradayCompare.ts # Compare current AI recs vs morning baseline, alert on STRONG BUY changes
   → src/email.ts           # Daily dark-themed HTML email + Resend
   → src/intradayEmail.ts   # Intraday alert email (focused, only triggered tickers)
   → src/weeklyEmail.ts     # Weekly rebalancing HTML email + Resend

README.md

@@ -132,7 +132,7 @@ config.json + .env
 
 Weekly mode (`--weekly`) skips news and AI, producing a focused rebalancing report.
 
-Intraday mode (`--intraday`) re-fetches prices, technicals, and AI (skipping news), compares against the morning baseline, and alerts only when buy signals strengthen significantly.
+Intraday mode (`--intraday`) re-fetches prices, technicals, and AI (skipping news), compares against the morning baseline, and alerts only for STRONG BUY-related changes: upgrades to STRONG BUY, downgrades from STRONG BUY, or confidence shifts ≥10 while at STRONG BUY.
 
 ## Updating Your Portfolio
 

config.example.json

@@ -25,7 +25,7 @@
   "totalPortfolioValueUSD": 50000,
   "intradayAlerts": {
     "enabled": true,
-    "confidenceIncreaseThreshold": 5,
+    "confidenceIncreaseThreshold": 10,
     "minConfidenceToAlert": 80,
     "actionUpgradesAlert": true,
     "onlyAlertForActions": ["STRONG BUY", "BUY"]

docs/configuration.md

@@ -36,10 +36,7 @@ cp config.example.json config.json
   "totalPortfolioValueUSD": 50000,
   "intradayAlerts": {
     "enabled": true,
-    "confidenceIncreaseThreshold": 5,
-    "minConfidenceToAlert": 80,
-    "actionUpgradesAlert": true,
-    "onlyAlertForActions": ["STRONG BUY", "BUY"]
+    "confidenceIncreaseThreshold": 10
   }
 }
 ```
@@ -61,13 +58,15 @@ cp config.example.json config.json
 
 The `intradayAlerts` section controls when intraday checks send alerts. All fields are optional — sensible defaults apply.
 
+Alerts trigger only for STRONG BUY-related changes:
+1. **Upgraded to STRONG BUY** — any other level → STRONG BUY
+2. **Downgraded from STRONG BUY** — STRONG BUY → any other level
+3. **Confidence changed** — confidence shifted ≥ threshold while staying STRONG BUY
+
 | Field | Default | Description |
 |-------|---------|-------------|
 | `enabled` | `true` | Master toggle. Set `false` to disable intraday alerts entirely. |
-| `confidenceIncreaseThreshold` | `5` | Minimum confidence increase (percentage points) to trigger an alert. |
-| `minConfidenceToAlert` | `80` | Only alert if the new confidence is at least this high. |
-| `actionUpgradesAlert` | `true` | Also alert when the action upgrades (e.g., BUY → STRONG BUY). |
-| `onlyAlertForActions` | `["STRONG BUY", "BUY"]` | Only consider tickers with these current actions. |
+| `confidenceIncreaseThreshold` | `10` | Minimum confidence change (absolute, percentage points) to trigger an alert for STRONG BUY tickers. |
 
 ---
 

src/config.ts

@@ -38,7 +38,7 @@ export const totalPortfolioValueUSD = json.totalPortfolioValueUSD;
 // ── Intraday alert config with defaults ─────────────────────────────
 const DEFAULT_INTRADAY: IntradayAlertConfig = {
   enabled: true,
-  confidenceIncreaseThreshold: 5,
+  confidenceIncreaseThreshold: 10,
   minConfidenceToAlert: 80,
   actionUpgradesAlert: true,
   onlyAlertForActions: ["STRONG BUY", "BUY"],

src/intradayCompare.ts

@@ -17,7 +17,7 @@ export interface IntradayAlert {
   valueRating?: string;
   bottomSignal?: string;
   analysisUrl?: string;
-  triggerType: "confidence_increase" | "action_upgrade" | "new_signal";
+  triggerType: "confidence_change" | "action_upgrade" | "action_downgrade";
   currentPrice: number;
   morningPrice: number;
   priceDelta: number;
@@ -45,41 +45,35 @@ export function compareWithBaseline(
   );
 
   for (const rec of currentRecs) {
-    if (!config.onlyAlertForActions.includes(rec.action)) continue;
-
     const morning = baselineMap.get(rec.ticker);
     const morningAction = morning?.action ?? "N/A";
     const morningConfidence = morning?.confidence ?? 0;
     const morningPrice = baseline.prices[rec.ticker] ?? 0;
     const currentPrice = currentPrices[rec.ticker] ?? 0;
 
     const confidenceDelta = rec.confidence - morningConfidence;
-    const currentRank = ACTION_RANK[rec.action] ?? 0;
-    const morningRank = ACTION_RANK[morningAction] ?? 0;
-    const actionUpgraded = currentRank > morningRank;
+    const wasStrongBuy = morningAction === "STRONG BUY";
+    const isStrongBuy = rec.action === "STRONG BUY";
 
     let triggerType: IntradayAlert["triggerType"] | null = null;
 
-    // Trigger 1: Confidence increased beyond threshold AND meets minimum
-    if (
-      confidenceDelta >= config.confidenceIncreaseThreshold &&
-      rec.confidence >= config.minConfidenceToAlert
-    ) {
-      triggerType = "confidence_increase";
+    // Trigger 1: Downgraded FROM STRONG BUY to any other level
+    if (wasStrongBuy && !isStrongBuy) {
+      triggerType = "action_downgrade";
     }
 
-    // Trigger 2: Action upgraded (e.g., BUY → STRONG BUY)
-    if (
-      config.actionUpgradesAlert &&
-      actionUpgraded &&
-      rec.confidence >= config.minConfidenceToAlert
-    ) {
+    // Trigger 2: Upgraded TO STRONG BUY from any other level
+    if (!wasStrongBuy && isStrongBuy) {
       triggerType = "action_upgrade";
     }
 
-    // Trigger 3: New signal — ticker wasn't in morning recs at all
-    if (!morning && rec.confidence >= config.minConfidenceToAlert) {
-      triggerType = "new_signal";
+    // Trigger 3: Confidence changed ≥ threshold while staying STRONG BUY
+    if (
+      wasStrongBuy &&
+      isStrongBuy &&
+      Math.abs(confidenceDelta) >= config.confidenceIncreaseThreshold
+    ) {
+      triggerType = "confidence_change";
     }
 
     if (triggerType) {

src/intradayEmail.ts

@@ -43,11 +43,11 @@ function actionBadge(action: string): string {
 function triggerLabel(type: IntradayAlert["triggerType"]): string {
   switch (type) {
     case "action_upgrade":
-      return "Action Upgraded";
-    case "new_signal":
-      return "New Signal";
-    case "confidence_increase":
-      return "Confidence Increased";
+      return "Upgraded to STRONG BUY";
+    case "action_downgrade":
+      return "Downgraded from STRONG BUY";
+    case "confidence_change":
+      return "Confidence Changed";
   }
 }
 

src/telegram.ts

@@ -273,9 +273,9 @@ function buildIntradayMessage(alerts: IntradayAlert[]): string {
     const triggerLabel =
       alert.triggerType === "action_upgrade"
         ? "upgraded"
-        : alert.triggerType === "new_signal"
-          ? "new signal"
-          : "strengthened";
+        : alert.triggerType === "action_downgrade"
+          ? "downgraded"
+          : "confidence changed";
 
     lines.push(
       `${actionEmoji(alert.currentAction)} <b>${alert.currentAction} ${alert.ticker}</b> (${triggerLabel})`