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<a href="VegetationModeling.html">Vegetation Modeling</a>
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<a href="ModelingWork.html">Modeling Work</a>
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<h1 class="title toc-ignore">Vegetation Modeling</h1>
</div>
<hr />
<div id="this-page" class="section level3">
<h3>This page:</h3>
<ul>
<li>Introduction to state-and-transition simulation (STSM) and LANDFIRE
biophysical settings (BpS) models</li>
<li>BpS Description and explanation</li>
<li>Application scale of the models</li>
<li>Getting started with <a href="https://syncrosim.com/"
target="blank">SyncroSim</a></li>
</ul>
<hr />
</div>
<div id="state-and-transition-models" class="section level2">
<h2>State-and-transition models</h2>
<p>A <strong>state-and-transition model</strong> (STM) conceptualizes
vegetation in terms of discrete states and the transitions or pathways
between them <a
href="http://rangelandarchive.ucdavis.edu/files/187350.pdf"
target="blank">(Westoby 1989)</a>. States are often used to represent
discrete development (seral) stages, and transitions may represent
disturbances such as hurricanes, fire, or grazing, but can also
represent management actions such as thinning, livestock management, or
herbicide application.</p>
</div>
<div id="state-and-transition-simulation-model" class="section level2">
<h2>State-and-transition <em>simulation</em> model</h2>
<p>When a STM is built in a software environment with rates of growth
between states and probabilities for each transition, it is known as a
<strong>state-and-transition simulation model</strong> (STSM; <a
href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/2041-210X.12597"
target="blank">Daniel et al. 2016</a>). A STSM can be used to
<strong>simulate the dynamics of a system over time and space.</strong>
STSMs have been widely applied in natural resource management to
estimate historical conditions (<a
href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/eap.2013"
target="blank">Donato et al. 2020</a>, <a
href="https://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/pubs/pnw_gtr869/pnw_gtr869_004.pdf"
target="blank">Blankenship et al. 2012</a>), simulate the spread of
invasive species (<a
href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecs2.2730"
target="blank">Jarnevich et al. 2019</a>), test various management
scenarios (<a
href="https://www.conservationgateway.org/Documents/Enhanced%20conservation%20action%20planning_assessing%20landscape%20condition.pdf"
target="blank">Low et al. 2010</a>, <a
href="https://www.aimspress.com/article/10.3934/environsci.2015.2.180"
target="blank">Costanza et al. 2015a</a>), and forecast future landscape
conditions under different climates (<a
href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319249285"
target="blank">Provencher et al. 2016</a>, <a
href="https://www.aimspress.com/fileOther/PDF/environmental/201503737.pdf"
target="blank">Swearingen et al. 2015</a>, <a
href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479714006112"
target="blank">Costanza et al. 2015b</a>).</p>
<br> Click through the example below to see how a STSM works:
<center>
<iframe title="My embedded document" src="kbslick5.html" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="450"></iframe>
</center>
</div>
<div id="landfire-bps-models-a-complete-set-for-the-u.s."
class="section level2">
<h2>LANDFIRE BpS models: a complete set for the U.S.</h2>
<style>
div.blue { background-color:#cde6c8; border-radius: 5px; padding: 20px;}
</style>
<div class="blue">
<p>The <strong><a href="https://landfire.gov/"
target="blank">LANDFIRE</a></strong> Program, in collaboration with
experts around the country, created a set of over 900 STSMs for
ecosystems in the United States <a
href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.3484" target="blank">Blankenship et
al. 2021</a>. Each LANDFIRE STSM represents a <strong>Biophysical
Setting</strong> (BpS). A BpS is a vegetation concept that describes the
vegetation community likely to have been dominant on the landscape prior
to European colonization of North America given an approximation of
historical disturbance regimes and the current biophysical
environment.</p>
</div>
<p><br></p>
<blockquote>
<p><strong><a href="https://www.landfire.gov/bps-models.php"
target="blank">LANDFIRE BpS models</a></strong> are reference condition
models that define natural vegetation communities and their historical
disturbance regimes. On the <a href="./ModelingWork.html"
target="blank">modeling work</a> page you will learn more about these
models and how to modify them to represent current landscapes and
simulate possible future conditions.</p>
</blockquote>
<style type="text/css">
.figure {
float: right;
width: 65%;
padding: 10px;
text-align: center;
}
</style>
<p><br></p>
<iframe width="896" height="504" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xjaWJCe7udQ" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen>
</iframe>
<p></br></p>
<p>Understanding how ecosystems looked and worked prior to European
colonization of North America is a focus of the BpS body of work. The
process was to:</p>
<ol style="list-style-type: decimal">
<li><p><strong>Classify and define the ecosystems.</strong> LANDFIRE
calls the historic ecosystems “Biophysical Settings”, and used <a
href="https://www.natureserve.org/conservation-tools/terrestrial-ecological-systems-united-states"
target="blank">NatureServe’s Ecological Systems</a></p></li>
<li><p>The LANDFIRE team held expert workshops to:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Describe the BpSs</strong>, including their nested states or
<a href="https://www.landfire.gov/sclass.php" target="blank">succession
classes</a>. BpS can have up to 5 succession classes, each of which is
described by its canopy height, canopy cover, and species
composition.</li>
<li><strong>Use state and transition modeling techniques</strong> to
estimate how much of each succession class would have been on the
landscape historically, (prior to European colonization). The estimated
amount of each succession class depends on the natural disturbance
regimes that the experts input into SyncroSim (just like you will be
doing soon! See section below for SyncroSim info.</li>
</ul></li>
</ol>
<p>Each LANDFIRE BpS has a description document and a
state-and-transition simulation model. <br> <br></p>
<div id="bps-descriptions" class="section level3">
<h3>BpS Descriptions</h3>
<p>Each BpS has an <a href="http://landfirereview.org/search.php"
target="blank">extensive description</a>. See the description from the
<a
href="http://landfirereview.org/search.php?q=Inter-Mountain%20Basins%20Montane%20Sagebrush%20Steppe&hPP=20&idx=lf_landfire_dev&p=0&dFR%5Bmap_zones.Number%5D%5B0%5D=1&is_v=1"
target="blank">Inter-Mountain Basins Montane Sagebrush Steppe
Ecosystem</a> example.</p>
<p>Each description includes:</p>
<style>
.col2 {
columns: 2 200px; /* number of columns and width in pixels*/
-webkit-columns: 2 200px; /* chrome, safari */
-moz-columns: 2 200px; /* firefox */
}
</style>
<div class="col2">
<ul>
<li>Biophysical setting name and number</li>
<li>A list of map zones the description covers</li>
<li>Descriptive geographic range text</li>
<li>Biophysical site description</li>
<li>Disturbance description</li>
<li>Descriptions of each succession class</li>
<li>Relevant literature</li>
</ul>
</div>
<p><br></p>
</div>
<div id="bps-models" class="section level3">
<h3>BpS Models</h3>
<div style="float:right; padding:20px;width:55%;">
<p><img src="images/virginia.jpg"
title="Decorative image of a coastal area in Virginia." width="2142"
alt="I really want some coffee." /><br />
</p>
<blockquote>
<p class="caption">
Photo: © Mark Godfrey, TNC, Virginia Coast Reserve
</p>
</blockquote>
</div>
<p>Experts developed a state-and-transition simulation model to
represent every LANDFIRE BpS. The models are developed and delivered in
the SyncroSim software, ST-Sim package. LANDFIRE BpS models are
standardized in several ways. Modelers defined each BpS with five or
fewer succession classes (i.e. states) and used a subset of the
SyncroSim software functions. In addition, modelers used a pre-defined
list of disturbances to attribute disturbance transitions. This list
included “optional” types that allowed modelers to define and model any
disturbance they wanted to include. Modeled states and transitions are
described in the model description discussed above. Pairing the model
with the description helps the user understand what the various states
and transitions represent. It may also offer users additional
information such as how disturbance probabilities were calculated, and
any assumptions made by model developers.</p>
<p><br> <br></p>
</div>
<div id="application-scale-of-the-models" class="section level3">
<h3>Application scale of the models</h3>
<p>LANDFIRE models and descriptions were designed for use over large
areas - not your back yard. BpS models were developed to represent
conditions at the <a
href="https://data.fs.usda.gov/geodata/rastergateway/treecanopycover/docs/partitioning-us-into-mapping-zones.pdf"
target="blank">National Land Cover Database Map Zone</a> level <a
href="./ModelingWork.html" target="blank">Modeling Work</a>. That said,
people do use them for smaller areas. Success of downscaling depends on
factors such as:</p>
<ul>
<li>How much review, and how comfortable are users with the information
included in the models?</li>
<li>How important are the decisions and how much risk is involved?</li>
<li>How much supporting information is there? <br></li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<div id="syncrosim-software" class="section level2">
<h2>SyncroSim software</h2>
<p>LANDFIRE currently develops and delivers its STSMs in the <a
href="http://docs.syncrosim.com/" target="blank">SyncroSim</a> modeling
platform. SyncroSim is a free and flexible platform designed to manage
data for simulation modeling. Packages developed for SyncroSim can be
used for any kind of simulation model with structured input and output
data. ST-Sim is a SyncroSim package that LANDFIRE uses to develop its
STSMs. ST-Sim can be used to model vegetation and land use and land
cover changes for virtually any ecosystem or landscape. The model is
stochastic (randomly determined) and can be run either spatially or
non-spatially. While LANDFIRE BpS models are non-spatial, there are many
examples of spatial STSMs (see <a
href="https://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/pubs/pnw_gtr869/pnw_gtr869_002.pdf"
target="blank">Daniel and Frid 2011</a>. <br></p>
<div id="getting-started-in-syncrosim" class="section level3">
<h3>Getting started in SyncroSim</h3>
<p>We recommend that users follow the steps below for downloading
SyncroSim and St-Sim</p>
<div id="step-1-download-syncrosim" class="section level4">
<h4>Step 1: Download SyncroSim</h4>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://syncrosim.com/" target="blank">SyncroSim
software</a>. Make sure you download the full package
(SyncroSim-setup.exe check your downloads file. Note - SyncroSim is
<em>not</em> the same as SyncroSim Lite) <br> <br></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div id="step-2-install-required-packages" class="section level4">
<h4>Step 2: Install required packages</h4>
<p><strong>Do not skip this step.</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><p>To work through this tutorial you will need to load 2 packages:
1) St-Sim and 2) landfirevegmodels. The “landfirevegmodels” package
gives users quick access to all of the BpS models, tables of Succession
Class (or in STSM language “states”) definitions and mapping
rules.</p></li>
<li><p>In SyncroSim, navigate to ‘File’ -> ‘Packages’ -> select
‘ST-Sim state-and-transition model’ and 2020 ‘landfirevegmodels’)->
‘Install’ -> OK (see screenshot below).</p></li>
</ul>
<center>
<img src="images/packages.JPG" style="width:85.0%" /><br />
</center>
<p><br></p>
</div>
</div>
<div id="for-more-information" class="section level3">
<h3>For more information</h3>
<ul>
<li>Read the overview of <a
href="http://docs.syncrosim.com/getting_started/overview.html"
target="blank">SyncroSim</a></li>
<li><a
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1BBcbImrrM&list=PLDFF9036BBFE46CE6&index=6&t=0s"
target="blank">Watch an introduction to SyncroSim</a> Note: some
features of SyncroSim may be different than what you see in the video
due to versioning.</li>
</ul>
<hr />
<div id="whats-next" class="section level4">
<h4>What’s next?</h4>
<ul>
<li>understanding the <a href="./perspectives.html"
target="blank">characteristics of the model</a> and taking a bird’s eye
view when considering the BpS model approach</li>
</ul>
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