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Aviator Quant Bot — Chrome Extension

Let's be real: Gambling is mathematically designed to make you lose. The house edge in Aviator is ~3%. Over time, you WILL lose money. No bot, no strategy, no signal group can change that.

So why does this exist? Because if you're going to play anyway, you should at least play with discipline, math, and a stop-loss — not with emotions, gut feelings, and "one more round" at 3 AM. This bot replaces your worst enemy (yourself at the table) with cold, calculated decisions.

Think of it like this: A helmet doesn't prevent accidents. But it keeps your skull intact when one happens. This bot is your helmet.


Adaptive, probability-based strategy bot for the Aviator game (by Spribe). Uses quantitative trading principles — Kelly Criterion sizing, expected value filtering, volatility guards, and streak detection — to make mathematically honest betting decisions.

This is NOT prediction. It is adaptive risk management based on live session data.

The Hard Truth

  • You will NOT get rich using this bot
  • The house always has a 3% edge — no strategy eliminates that
  • This bot maximizes your chance of hitting a short-term target and then stopping
  • If you're gambling money you can't afford to lose, close this page and call a helpline

Gambling Helpline (India): 1800-599-0019 | International: https://www.gamblersanonymous.org

Install

  1. Open Chrome → chrome://extensions/
  2. Enable Developer mode (top-right toggle)
  3. Click Load unpacked → select the aviator-strategy-bot folder
  4. Navigate to any site running the Aviator game
  5. Click the extension icon to show the panel

Core Philosophy

The bot cannot predict crash points. But it CAN:

  1. Track a rolling window of recent crash points
  2. Calculate real-time statistics from that data
  3. Dynamically adjust bet size and cashout target
  4. Only bet when expected value is favorable
  5. Cut exposure during high-variance periods

How the Algorithm Works

Module 1 — Crash History Tracker

Maintains a rolling window of the last 50 crash points. After every round, it calculates:

  • Mean — average crash value
  • Standard Deviation — measure of volatility
  • % above 1.5x — how often rounds exceed 1.5x
  • % above 2x — how often rounds exceed 2x
  • % above 3x — how often rounds exceed 3x
  • Recent low streak — consecutive crashes below 1.5x (danger signal)

The bot waits for at least 10 data points before making any bet decisions. During this collection phase it only observes.

Module 2 — Kelly Criterion Bet Sizing

Used by professional gamblers and quant funds to size positions based on edge and probability.

Kelly % = (p × b − q) / b

Where:
  p = probability of winning (from history)
  q = 1 − p (probability of losing)
  b = net odds (cashout multiplier − 1)

The bot uses Half-Kelly (standard quant practice — reduces variance at the cost of slightly lower returns). Bet size is capped at 5% of bankroll maximum. If Kelly returns zero or negative, the round is skipped entirely — negative Kelly means the bet has no edge.

Module 3 — Dynamic Cashout Target

The bot does NOT use a fixed target. It picks the optimal cashout each round based on what the data supports:

Condition Target Logic
55%+ of recent rounds went above 2x 2.0x Session is running hot
55%+ went above 1.5x 1.5x Normal conditions
45%+ went above 1.5x 1.3x Session is cold — conservative
Below 45% Skip No edge exists

Module 4 — Volatility Guard

When crash points are highly variable (high standard deviation), the bot reduces exposure:

StdDev Volatility Level Action
< 1.5 Low Normal bet size (100%)
1.5–3.0 Medium Reduce bet by 40%
3.0–5.0 High Reduce bet by 70%
> 5.0 Extreme Skip round entirely

Module 5 — Streak Detection

The bot adjusts behavior based on consecutive outcomes:

Condition Response
4+ consecutive losses Reduce bet to 50% (never martingale)
6+ consecutive losses Skip round entirely
3+ recent crashes below 1.5x Skip round
4+ consecutive wins Hold steady — do NOT increase bets

Critical rule: The bot NEVER uses Martingale (doubling after loss). Ever.

Module 6 — Master Decision Engine

Before every round, combines all modules into a single decision:

  1. Calculate rolling stats from history
  2. Determine dynamic cashout target
  3. Check if target has positive EV: EV = (winProb × payout) − lossProb
  4. If EV ≤ 0 → skip
  5. Calculate Kelly bet size for that target
  6. Apply volatility multiplier
  7. Apply streak adjustment
  8. Final sanity checks (minimum bet, bankroll cap)

If the bot skips 3 consecutive rounds, it forces a minimum 1% bet at 1.5x to keep collecting data.

Module 7 — Stop Conditions

Rule Threshold Action
Drawdown from peak 25% drop from session high Bot stops
Take-Profit 40% gain from starting bankroll Bot stops
Max Rounds Configurable (default 100) Bot stops
Bankrupt Bankroll reaches ₹0 Bot stops

Note: Stop-loss is measured from session peak (highest bankroll reached), not just the starting amount. This is a trailing stop.

Available Strategies (9 total)

The bot implements 9 distinct betting strategies. Each has a fundamentally different approach to bet sizing, target selection, and risk management.

1. Quant/Kelly (default)

Uses Kelly Criterion to size bets based on detected edge. Dynamically picks cashout target (1.1x–2.0x) from rolling 50-round history. Skips rounds when no positive expected value is found. Dual-panel split: 70% safe + 30% hunter.

2. Goal Seeker (Dubins-Savage Bold Play)

Framework: Dubins-Savage Bold Play + Browne's Goal-Reaching.

Dynamically adjusts aggression based on where you stand between your stop-loss floor and profit-target ceiling. The closer you are to ruin, the bolder the bets — the closer you are to your goal, the smaller and safer.

Aggression Zones:

Zone Bankroll Position Behavior
TARGET > 95% toward profit goal Lock-in mode: tiny bets, 1.2x cashout
COMFORT 70–95% toward goal Conservative: small bets, 1.5x target
NEUTRAL 30–70% toward goal Standard: Kelly-based sizing
DANGER 10–30% toward goal Aggressive: bigger bets, higher targets
CRITICAL < 10% from stop-loss Desperation: bold play, max payout targets

Key math:

  • Gambler's Ruin probability computed in real-time: P(reach target) = (1 - (q/p)^current) / (1 - (q/p)^target)
  • Bet sizes and targets derived from distance-to-goal, NOT from crash history
  • Completely stateless — all decisions derived from current bankroll position relative to boundaries

Best for: Sessions with a clear profit target and stop-loss, where you want the bot to "fight" its way to the goal with calibrated aggression.

3. Sniper (Adaptive)

A multi-phase "observe then fire" strategy. Fully autonomous — no manual target or window configuration needed.

Lifecycle:

INITIAL_OBSERVE (50 rounds) → Analysis → READY → [trigger check] → FIRE
    ↓ (after each bet)
OBSERVE (50 rounds) → Re-analysis → READY → [trigger check] → FIRE
    ↓ (repeat until window exhausted or hit)
DONE → restart from INITIAL_OBSERVE

Phase 1 — Observation (50 rounds, configurable): The bot watches crash data without betting. It analyzes 6 multiplier tiers (10x, 15x, 20x, 30x, 50x, 100x) and scores each by:

  • Observed frequency vs. theoretical expectation
  • Edge (observed rate − theoretical rate)
  • Payout ratio

Phase 2 — Window Sizing: After analysis, the bot picks the "hottest" tier and calculates how many bets (window size) are needed to achieve a target cumulative hit probability:

window_size = ceil(ln(1 - confidence) / ln(1 - P(hit per round)))

Example at 15x target (P ≈ 6.5% per round):

Confidence Window Size Cost (at ₹10/bet) P(at least 1 hit)
70% (Conservative) ~18 bets ₹180 70%
50% (Balanced) ~10 bets ₹100 50%
30% (Aggressive) ~5 bets ₹50 30%

Phase 3 — Trigger (Wait Condition): Before firing, the bot can optionally wait for a signal:

Trigger Condition Rationale
Immediate Fire on next round Default — no delay after analysis
Dry Spell Last 5 rounds ALL below 2x Patience: wait for a "cold" streak
Overdue Target not seen in last 20 rounds Patience: target feels "due"

Note: Dry Spell and Overdue do NOT improve mathematical odds (each round is independent). They add discipline/patience by delaying entry.

Phase 4 — Fire: Places the bet with calculated amount and target. If dynamic target is enabled (default), re-observes 50 rounds before EACH individual bet in the window and re-analyzes — the target may shift between bets.

Configurable Parameters:

Setting Default Description
Observation Rounds 50 How many rounds to watch before each bet
Max Risk per Window 5% Total bankroll % risked across all bets in a window
Window Confidence 50% Target P(at least 1 hit) — controls window size
Dynamic Target On Recalculate target between bets within a window
Fire Trigger Immediate When to pull trigger after observation completes

Best for: High-multiplier hunting with patience. You accept many rounds of pure observation for occasional big payouts.

4. Flat Conservative

Always bets 1% of bankroll. Always cashes out at 1.5x (64.7% win rate). Never changes. Maximum bankroll survival for long sessions with minimal drawdown.

5. Flat Balanced

Fixed 1% of bankroll per round. Cashout at 2.0x (48.5% win rate). Balanced risk/reward — wins less often but profits more per win.

6. Anti-Martingale

Positive progression: doubles bet after each win (1x→2x→4x). Resets to base after any loss or 3 consecutive wins. Capitalizes on hot streaks safely. Never increases after losses.

7. 1-3-2-6

Structured 4-step sequence on consecutive wins: bet 1, 3, 2, 6 units. Reset to step 1 on any loss. Profits from 4-win streaks (pays 12 units on 12-unit investment). Self-limiting.

8. D'Alembert

Gentle negative progression: +1 unit on loss, −1 on win, never below 1 unit. Much safer than Martingale — linear growth instead of exponential. Slow recovery, high bankroll survival.

9. Oscar's Grind

Ultra-conservative cycle system. Only increases bet by 1 unit after a win AND only if the cycle is negative. Resets once cycle reaches +1 unit profit. Patient capital preservation.

Auto-Switch Strategy

Evaluates performance every 25 rounds using a composite scoring system and switches to the best-performing strategy automatically.

Rules:

  • Minimum 15 rounds on a strategy before switching is considered
  • Excludes Goal Seeker and Sniper from rotation (they have dedicated lifecycles)
  • Scores based on: win rate, drawdown, EV, volatility-adjusted returns

Panel Dashboard

The floating sidebar shows live quant data:

Decision Engine section:

  • EV (expected value of current decision)
  • Win Probability (from rolling history)
  • Dynamic Cashout Target
  • Kelly % being used
  • Volatility level (Low/Medium/High/Extreme)
  • Bet size for this round
  • Decision reason (why it bet or skipped)

Rolling Stats section:

  • Mean crash, StdDev
  • % above 1.5x, 2x, 3x
  • Sample count
  • Sparkline of last 20 crash points (color-coded: green >2x, orange >1.5x, red <1.5x)

Bankroll section:

  • Starting, Current, Peak, P/L

Session section:

  • Rounds played, Win rate, Skipped rounds, Consecutive losses/wins

User Configuration

Setting Default Description
Starting Bankroll ₹1000 Your initial capital
Max Rounds 100 Auto-stop after this many rounds
Drawdown Stop 5% Stop if bankroll drops this % from peak
Take-Profit 110% Stop if bankroll reaches this % of start
Simulation Mode On Dry run with generated crash points

Simulation Mode

When enabled (default), the bot:

  • Generates crash points with a weighted distribution mimicking real game behavior
  • Runs full quant logic (Kelly, EV, volatility) against simulated data
  • Shows timing that mirrors real game phases (betting → flying → crash → pause)
  • Does NOT interact with the game DOM

Disable simulation only when you want the bot to evaluate against real detected crash multipliers.

Files

manifest.json    — Chrome extension manifest (V3)
background.js    — Service worker for storage/lifecycle
content.js       — Main bot: game observation, decision loop, simulation
strategies.js    — All 9 strategy implementations + auto-switch logic
panel.js         — Floating dashboard UI + configuration
panel.css        — Panel styles
icons/           — Extension icons

Mathematical Honesty

  • The house edge is ~3% (provably fair RNG)
  • NO strategy can guarantee long-term profit against a negative-expectation game
  • Observation does NOT predict future rounds — each crash is independent
  • "Hot" tiers, dry spells, and overdue signals are pattern-matching heuristics, not causal predictors
  • What math CAN do: optimize bet sizing, manage risk, maximize P(reaching a goal before ruin)
  • The Gambler's Ruin theorem proves that with infinite play, the house always wins
  • These strategies optimize discipline and risk management, not luck

Disclaimer

This is for educational and entertainment purposes. The house edge (~3%) means no strategy guarantees long-term profit. This bot minimizes bad decisions — it does not eliminate risk.

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Open-source quant strategy bot for Aviator. 9 algorithms, Kelly sizing, smart quit logic. Because if you're going to play, at least play with math.

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