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1. product-decision-under-uncertainty product-decision-under-uncertainty Public

   Decision-analysis case study: a Monte Carlo joint-world sampler, an explicit guardrail policy, and a traceable path from assumptions to a recommendation when no option is clearly safe.

   Python

2. trackside-labs trackside-labs Public

   End-to-end F1 race-weekend prediction system: qualifying and race order, podium probabilities, and P5–P95 forecast ranges, backed by Supabase. Domain: F1 2026 regulation reset.

   Python 2 1

3. public-signals-mislead public-signals-mislead Public

   Why external signals mislead product calls: across 36 subscription features, 69% that companies kept backing still showed >80% search decay. Separates what the public record shows from what it can …

   Python 1

4. measurement-maturity-framework measurement-maturity-framework Public

   Audits metric definitions for structural readiness before they drive decisions — scores maturity, flags pack-level risk, and names the next fix. Streamlit app plus library.

   Jupyter Notebook

5. causal-guardian causal-guardian Public

   A guardrail layer for causal estimates: separates identification and refutation (DoWhy) from estimation (statsmodels) and runs refutation tests before an effect size is trusted.

   Python

6. rdd-free-shipping rdd-free-shipping Public

   Regression discontinuity on free-shipping thresholds (synthetic validation): conversion rises ~7pp, but the subsidy doesn't pay back at 25% margins. Full placebo, bandwidth, and PSM checks.

   Jupyter Notebook