Bettor

Getting Started

1. Install Python (Mac)

Install pyenv:

brew install pyenv

Install Python:

pyenv install 3.13.5     

Switch to Python version:

pyenv local 3.13.5     

Verify Python and version

which python
python --version  

2. Set Up the Virtual Environment

In the root folder of the project. Start by creating a virtual environment for managing dependencies:

python -m venv venv

Activate the virtual environment:

source venv/bin/activate

Install requirements:

pip install -r requirements.txt

3. Install Playwright

playwright install

Usage

Matches

python main.py matches --coupon <MIDWEEK | SATURDAY | SUNDAY> --days <DAYS_OF_THE_MONTH_FOR_THE_COUPON>

Example

python main.py matches --coupon MIDWEEK --days 7

Predictions

python main.py predictions --filename <DATA_FILE_PATH>

Example

python main.py predictions --filename data/matches_2_2026_MIDWEEK.json

Bets

python main.py bets --filename <DATA_FILE_PATH> --balance <STARTING_BALANCE>

Example

python main.py bets --filename data/matches_2_2026_MIDWEEK.json --balance 1000 

About

The application uses statistical models to identify value bets and determine optimal stake sizes.

True Probability

The "True Probability" ($P$) is the probability of a specific outcome (Home Win, Tie, or Away Win).

Odds

The "Odds" ($O$) refer to the decimal odds offered by the bookmaker.

Expected Value (EV)

The Expected Value measures the profitability of a bet. It is calculated as the difference between the expected return and the stake.

$$EV = (P \times O) - 1$$

Where:

• $P$ is the true probability (as a decimal between 0 and 1).
• $O$ is the decimal odds.

A positive EV indicates a value bet, meaning that over the long run, the bet is expected to be profitable.

Kelly Criterion

The Kelly Criterion is a formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets. It balances risk and reward to maximize the logarithm of wealth.

The optimal fraction of the bankroll to bet ($f^*$) is given by:

$$f^* = \frac{EV}{O - 1}$$

Where:

• $EV$ is the expected value.
• $O - 1$ is the net odds (odds minus the stake).

Betting Configuration

The application uses a configuration file (config.ini) to set parameters for the betting strategy:

• min_expected_value: The minimum EV required to place a bet. Bets with EV below this threshold are ignored.
• max_odds: The maximum allowable odds. Bets with odds higher than this value are skipped (often to avoid high variance).
• kelly_fraction: A multiplier applied to the Kelly fraction ($f^*$). It is common to use a "Half Kelly" (0.5) or other fraction to reduce volatility.