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Fervo_Project_Cape-4 Stimulation Costs Update #97

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Fervo_Project_Cape-4 Stimulation Costs Update #97

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aeca13d
Adjust Fervo_Project_Cape-4 stimulation cost to M per well. Remove 15…
softwareengineerprogrammer Aug 5, 2025
e1f2f52
use percent- instead of place-based comparison (https://github.com/so…
softwareengineerprogrammer Aug 5, 2025
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12 changes: 6 additions & 6 deletions docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ Financial results are calculated
using
the [SAM Single Owner PPA Economic Model](https://softwareengineerprogrammer.github.io/GEOPHIRES/SAM-Economic-Models.html#sam-single-owner-ppa).

Key case study results include LCOE = $75.5/MWh and CAPEX = $4900/kW.
Key case study results include LCOE = $79.1/MWh and CAPEX = $4800/kW.

[Click here](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Cape-4) to
interactively explore the case study in the GEOPHIRES web interface.
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -54,7 +54,7 @@ in source code for the full set of inputs.
| Fraction of Investment in Bonds (percent debt vs. equity) | 60% | Approximate remaining percentage of CAPEX with $1 billion sponsor equity per Matson, 2024. Note that this source says that Fervo ultimately wants to target "15% sponsor equity, 15% bridge loan, and 70% construction to term loans", but this case study does not attempt to model that capital structure. |
| Exploration Capital Cost | $30M | Estimate significantly higher exploration costs than default correlation in consideration of potential risks associated with second/third/fourth-of-a-kind EGS projects |
| Investment Tax Credit Rate (ITC) | 30% | Same as 400 MWe case study (Fervo_Project_Cape-3) |
| Inflation Rate During Construction | 15% | Conservatively models the equivalent of a higher annual inflation rate (4.769%) over a 3-year period as a hedge against construction delays and short-term inflation volatility. |
| Construction Years | 1 | Calibrated to a 2-6 year construction time for a 1 GW plant (Yusifov & Enriquez, 2025) |
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FIXME re: line 50 above - needs to be updated!


### Technical & Engineering Parameters

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -83,12 +83,12 @@ in source code for the complete results.

| Metric | Result Value | Reference Value(s) | Reference Source |
|------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------|
| LCOE | $75.5/MWh | $80/MWh | Horne et al, 2025 |
| Project capital costs: Total CAPEX | $2.64B | | |
| Project capital costs: $/kW | $4900/kW (based on maximum net electricity generation) | $5000/kW; $4500/kW; $3000–$6000/kW | McClure, 2024; Horne et al, 2025; Latimer, 2025. |
| LCOE | $79.1/MWh | $80/MWh | Horne et al, 2025 |
| Project capital costs: Total CAPEX | $2.59B | | |
| Project capital costs: $/kW | $4800/kW (based on maximum net electricity generation) | $5000/kW; $4500/kW; $3000–$6000/kW | McClure, 2024; Horne et al, 2025; Latimer, 2025. |
| Well Drilling and Completion Cost | $3.96M/well (including 5% indirect costs) | $<4M/well | Latimer, 2025. |
| WACC | 8.3% | 8.3% | Matson, 2024. |
| After-tax IRR | 31.5% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects |
| After-tax IRR | 29.28% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects |

### Technical & Engineering Results

Expand Down
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